* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 09/11/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 37 47 55 62 62 61 62 58 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 37 47 55 62 62 61 62 58 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 30 34 38 41 42 42 40 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 15 12 10 14 12 20 17 15 9 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 -2 1 -3 1 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 41 37 53 57 20 13 350 351 333 328 305 327 304 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.1 27.2 26.5 26.2 25.3 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 161 161 159 153 145 136 129 126 117 97 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 9 8 7 8 8 7 6 6 4 2 700-500 MB RH 81 82 80 81 81 79 77 75 67 65 62 62 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 12 13 17 18 20 21 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -15 -17 -19 -19 -28 -20 -4 18 27 33 12 -4 200 MB DIV 37 34 53 75 98 74 92 72 71 53 43 1 -17 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -2 -5 -1 -6 -6 -9 0 -9 0 2 LAND (KM) 420 413 407 409 392 400 436 528 537 570 628 721 824 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.7 16.6 17.5 18.3 19.1 20.1 21.1 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 100.2 101.2 102.2 103.2 104.1 106.0 107.9 109.7 111.6 113.7 115.7 118.1 120.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 61 69 66 65 65 47 31 15 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 16. 23. 29. 31. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 8. 13. 14. 16. 19. 17. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 22. 30. 37. 37. 36. 37. 33. 27. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 09/11/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)