* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962013 10/20/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 44 52 60 68 70 65 59 58 59 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 44 52 60 68 70 65 59 58 59 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 41 47 53 58 63 67 71 74 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 14 9 6 10 12 12 14 14 15 15 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 -4 -4 -6 -7 -6 -3 0 -2 -4 2 SHEAR DIR 71 96 114 138 156 211 169 175 174 157 180 247 229 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 162 162 160 161 161 162 162 162 161 160 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -53.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -53.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 8 11 9 11 8 9 6 10 700-500 MB RH 80 81 79 76 75 69 65 63 61 58 56 56 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 11 11 12 13 15 15 13 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 19 35 37 26 28 41 42 35 33 39 38 42 30 200 MB DIV 78 68 54 48 45 48 89 85 90 80 12 13 23 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 -1 LAND (KM) 323 304 284 257 230 177 143 103 54 51 101 144 172 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 5 5 3 2 2 1 2 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 21 21 20 22 23 25 24 23 24 23 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 4. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 30. 38. 40. 35. 29. 28. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962013 INVEST 10/20/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962013 INVEST 10/20/13 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING