* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962013 06/27/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 39 48 55 59 61 62 63 63 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 39 48 55 59 61 62 63 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 28 34 42 50 58 66 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 8 5 7 6 8 12 12 13 19 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 0 -2 -2 -7 -5 -6 -6 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 18 39 29 44 23 58 65 83 100 87 73 83 65 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 154 152 152 151 150 148 150 152 154 156 157 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -53.6 -54.1 -53.4 -54.1 -53.4 -54.0 -53.0 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 82 82 85 83 85 82 77 71 71 69 68 70 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -44 -43 -40 -33 -19 -2 15 0 8 -17 -17 -22 200 MB DIV 106 97 107 101 96 99 95 105 84 97 90 80 50 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 2 2 0 1 0 0 -1 -4 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 777 802 829 868 908 982 1038 1053 1034 981 883 752 630 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.1 9.9 9.9 10.1 10.6 11.5 12.9 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.8 104.6 105.3 105.9 106.9 107.6 107.9 107.9 107.8 107.6 107.6 107.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 5 3 1 2 4 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 28 27 26 26 28 30 30 30 31 36 42 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 28. 35. 39. 41. 42. 43. 43. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962013 INVEST 06/27/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)