* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962013 06/27/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 33 41 48 54 58 60 60 62 63 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 33 41 48 54 58 60 60 62 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 26 29 33 39 46 55 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 17 12 11 6 6 3 12 11 15 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -3 -4 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 6 18 28 15 22 12 8 29 60 94 69 69 69 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 154 152 152 151 149 150 152 156 158 160 159 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.3 -54.1 -53.5 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 80 81 83 84 84 83 79 75 73 71 74 76 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -46 -39 -39 -37 -29 -19 -9 -12 -10 -11 -9 -1 200 MB DIV 123 102 97 118 115 99 98 110 112 85 93 49 54 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 752 775 797 823 849 907 935 901 811 700 581 475 361 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.2 10.1 10.5 11.3 12.3 13.4 14.5 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 101.3 102.2 103.0 103.7 104.4 105.3 105.8 106.0 105.8 105.6 105.4 105.4 105.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 7 7 6 3 2 3 5 6 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 44 39 33 28 27 26 26 28 34 51 60 55 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 28. 34. 38. 40. 40. 42. 43. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962013 INVEST 06/27/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)