* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/16/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 28 26 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 15 19 23 21 20 19 16 17 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 0 -2 0 -2 1 0 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 295 262 239 242 242 250 258 263 294 292 330 2 305 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 124 121 117 115 114 116 117 118 117 115 112 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -54.9 -55.3 -55.4 -55.7 -55.5 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 45 44 46 45 43 35 32 33 32 31 29 26 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 7 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -27 -25 -20 -34 -47 -41 -37 -41 -41 -40 -30 -22 200 MB DIV 4 -4 7 -5 -22 -28 -3 -1 -17 -7 -48 -28 -44 700-850 TADV 6 5 5 6 4 5 3 3 4 3 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 1025 1056 1090 1126 1165 1264 1379 1490 1600 1697 1780 1844 1857 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.5 18.2 17.8 17.4 17.2 17.3 17.5 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.6 120.2 120.8 121.4 122.5 123.6 124.7 125.8 126.9 128.1 129.1 129.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -14. -19. -23. -26. -26. -25. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/16/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/16/13 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING