* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 06/22/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 43 46 45 42 40 38 33 26 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 43 46 45 42 40 38 33 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 32 35 36 35 31 27 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 14 13 12 13 16 34 41 49 45 39 26 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 0 11 7 -2 -3 4 14 SHEAR DIR 103 117 119 124 106 68 70 47 41 39 20 14 332 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.7 29.3 28.9 26.4 22.0 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 142 146 149 152 150 153 160 156 131 85 64 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 0 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 68 68 76 77 84 88 88 80 68 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 0 9 9 30 75 129 127 84 54 58 81 48 200 MB DIV 46 53 48 26 29 63 73 129 149 122 32 65 -22 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 3 2 1 9 35 54 21 -29 -30 -14 LAND (KM) 1071 1081 1091 1150 1209 1338 1359 1214 896 512 328 183 286 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.4 14.3 13.8 13.2 11.8 10.5 10.1 11.8 15.3 18.9 21.6 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 114.8 114.9 115.0 115.1 115.2 114.9 113.7 111.0 108.3 107.3 108.4 111.1 114.8 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 3 6 6 8 10 14 16 17 18 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 26 31 31 18 13 45 47 40 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):316/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 32. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -12. -16. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 18. 21. 20. 17. 15. 13. 8. 1. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 06/22/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)