* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 06/21/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 38 45 57 62 60 60 58 56 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 38 45 57 62 60 60 58 56 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 23 26 29 33 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 8 7 4 8 8 16 24 30 50 35 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 4 3 -4 -2 -4 -2 0 -8 4 9 SHEAR DIR 112 136 157 150 111 129 66 71 67 73 83 83 68 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.7 28.3 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 141 138 134 134 138 145 150 152 149 148 140 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 70 68 65 64 62 66 70 70 79 84 85 88 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 10 9 10 12 13 19 21 20 21 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR -1 0 -5 -13 -7 10 34 68 85 122 148 77 32 200 MB DIV 58 78 69 68 59 50 26 46 56 80 120 83 50 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 0 -1 0 0 0 0 4 14 18 6 LAND (KM) 1098 1081 1072 1076 1084 1131 1211 1288 1334 1272 1119 900 655 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.0 14.4 13.4 12.5 12.4 12.9 14.0 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.5 115.2 115.7 116.2 116.8 117.2 117.0 116.3 114.8 113.0 111.3 110.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 5 4 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 27 31 28 22 14 12 20 30 29 25 23 24 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 421 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 20. 26. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 2. -2. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 17. 20. 18. 20. 18. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 25. 37. 42. 40. 40. 38. 36. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 06/21/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)