* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 10/11/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 51 58 63 61 54 48 40 34 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 51 58 63 61 54 48 40 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 35 38 42 44 42 38 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 21 18 15 18 13 8 17 23 28 33 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -2 0 -7 0 1 0 0 -3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 83 93 103 111 115 106 139 151 191 216 221 232 236 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.3 27.0 25.5 24.1 23.3 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 151 153 155 149 135 119 103 93 87 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 82 81 79 80 77 80 77 75 64 54 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 9 9 11 11 12 11 11 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -6 3 9 13 10 25 29 22 12 7 6 6 200 MB DIV 82 76 81 94 108 91 84 70 52 33 20 -5 -8 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 1 0 0 2 3 9 13 4 1 1 LAND (KM) 629 637 651 664 679 704 721 733 654 625 618 651 664 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.7 14.9 16.6 18.6 20.4 21.8 22.6 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 104.2 104.8 105.4 106.0 106.5 108.0 109.9 112.1 114.3 116.1 117.4 118.3 119.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 9 12 14 13 11 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 19 20 22 25 33 10 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 29. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 33. 38. 36. 29. 23. 15. 9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 10/11/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942013 INVEST 10/11/13 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING