* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942013 08/21/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 37 41 49 55 59 61 58 54 49 43 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 37 41 49 55 59 61 58 54 49 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 41 48 54 58 59 55 49 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 13 12 10 12 9 12 5 12 14 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 -2 5 -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 28 47 64 77 67 42 27 351 335 242 201 191 177 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.1 27.6 25.5 23.3 22.3 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 156 156 158 158 155 140 118 95 83 76 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -52.0 -52.7 -51.4 -51.9 -50.7 -51.3 -50.3 -50.8 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 72 73 72 71 71 68 68 63 57 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 29 42 55 51 43 61 64 83 83 91 85 74 200 MB DIV 69 84 91 87 89 105 91 88 107 93 36 -15 8 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 10 -1 1 0 2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 776 795 817 825 832 819 716 608 509 454 485 499 482 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.8 16.9 18.2 20.1 21.7 23.1 24.0 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.5 110.9 111.2 111.5 112.1 112.5 113.0 113.9 115.2 116.7 117.8 118.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 9 10 10 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 38 34 32 33 34 31 22 16 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 28. 31. 30. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 16. 24. 30. 34. 36. 33. 29. 24. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942013 INVEST 08/21/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942013 INVEST 08/21/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##