* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932013 10/06/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 46 52 57 58 55 53 49 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 46 52 57 58 55 53 49 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 49 51 50 46 43 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 7 6 6 6 2 1 12 15 17 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -6 -3 -2 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 90 85 67 70 71 85 172 244 221 242 216 236 242 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.6 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 151 150 146 139 133 130 126 125 124 120 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 60 60 57 55 57 57 53 50 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 9 10 11 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 21 30 38 46 48 39 31 20 21 22 33 18 20 200 MB DIV 49 62 60 58 59 52 27 33 53 50 33 24 12 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -3 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 LAND (KM) 1246 1282 1323 1370 1422 1480 1544 1610 1643 1659 1634 1616 1566 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.6 15.3 15.9 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.9 117.7 118.7 119.6 121.4 123.1 124.5 125.3 125.8 125.8 125.9 126.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 4 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 19 15 15 15 5 9 0 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 21. 27. 32. 33. 30. 28. 24. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932013 INVEST 10/06/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932013 INVEST 10/06/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##