* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932013 10/03/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 37 43 45 47 46 45 45 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 37 43 45 47 46 45 45 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 29 32 34 36 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 13 12 12 12 9 8 6 5 2 3 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 -1 -2 -4 -2 -3 0 -5 -3 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 128 114 108 112 112 131 161 166 175 171 233 246 270 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.6 27.1 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 154 153 155 155 152 151 148 141 135 130 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 62 63 60 57 53 52 50 46 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 18 17 15 14 11 10 8 13 24 28 24 17 8 200 MB DIV 35 48 42 34 22 28 35 42 23 32 25 10 6 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 769 803 840 883 930 1024 1067 1129 1254 1392 1521 1661 1774 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.4 16.0 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.1 109.7 110.5 111.2 112.7 114.3 116.2 118.2 120.6 122.9 125.2 127.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 21 20 21 20 21 39 21 17 9 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 17. 23. 25. 27. 26. 25. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932013 INVEST 10/03/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932013 INVEST 10/03/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##