* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932013 08/11/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 26 31 35 36 36 34 31 28 26 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 26 31 35 36 36 34 31 28 26 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 28 28 27 26 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 2 3 6 11 14 17 22 25 31 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -5 -5 -4 -6 -5 -5 -2 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 55 44 16 331 339 306 310 302 292 285 271 263 259 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 145 144 141 137 137 136 135 133 131 129 129 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 51 50 52 50 49 47 45 44 44 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 4 3 -2 0 0 12 11 19 20 18 16 200 MB DIV 20 31 42 31 17 25 10 -3 13 23 24 18 35 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -3 -5 -6 -4 -2 -2 0 7 6 7 LAND (KM) 2399 2281 2162 2041 1921 1684 1426 1183 939 741 526 377 364 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.4 13.9 14.7 15.5 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 133.8 134.9 136.0 137.2 138.3 140.7 143.4 146.1 148.7 151.0 153.3 155.5 157.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 11 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 16 12 11 19 13 10 13 12 5 2 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 15. 16. 16. 14. 11. 8. 6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932013 INVEST 08/11/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932013 INVEST 08/11/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##