* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP912013 09/17/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 44 50 56 59 60 58 57 55 54 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 44 50 56 59 60 58 42 36 39 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 38 42 45 51 56 62 67 70 49 40 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 4 4 8 11 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -4 -1 -4 -2 0 -2 0 -3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 175 155 177 207 216 191 246 187 233 176 199 193 213 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.6 27.7 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 155 155 155 155 155 152 147 138 132 130 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 69 68 66 63 59 52 52 49 50 44 42 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 61 55 48 41 38 59 34 51 14 28 12 25 14 200 MB DIV -10 -4 -10 -9 1 31 6 2 -8 -8 8 -4 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 4 0 LAND (KM) 112 127 142 127 92 52 49 46 33 4 -10 -5 20 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.7 22.8 23.0 23.2 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.5 24.7 24.7 25.0 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.6 107.9 108.2 108.5 109.0 109.4 109.7 110.2 110.8 111.6 112.1 112.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 24 23 23 22 21 20 13 40 40 25 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 20. 26. 29. 30. 28. 27. 25. 24. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 MANUEL 09/17/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912013 MANUEL 09/17/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##