* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 09/13/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 45 51 53 58 62 63 62 59 59 60 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 45 51 53 58 62 63 62 59 59 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 44 52 59 66 70 73 75 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 15 14 12 8 6 10 7 15 15 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 3 -3 2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 49 60 70 64 72 83 342 98 109 76 69 70 77 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 158 158 157 156 155 155 153 154 154 153 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 10 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 86 83 82 82 80 79 81 78 77 77 77 78 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 17 16 16 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 86 86 97 100 100 105 113 104 143 134 119 99 99 200 MB DIV 106 112 118 134 125 119 93 98 123 78 119 69 51 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -6 -7 -13 -6 0 4 5 2 4 4 5 LAND (KM) 213 210 207 203 204 166 115 95 77 76 76 68 49 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.8 101.3 101.8 102.1 102.4 102.8 103.1 103.5 103.7 104.0 104.2 104.5 104.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 44 36 29 26 24 21 18 15 13 12 11 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 420 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 21. 23. 28. 32. 33. 32. 29. 29. 30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 09/13/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 63% is 4.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 09/13/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##