* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 09/12/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 58 66 71 73 72 72 73 73 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 58 66 71 73 72 72 73 73 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 49 57 65 72 77 80 82 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 12 8 9 11 7 7 8 9 10 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -2 -2 -1 -4 -4 -1 0 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 49 54 67 90 102 97 105 103 146 127 133 116 102 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 158 158 158 158 158 157 156 155 155 155 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 8 7 8 7 9 8 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 87 86 84 84 82 82 80 81 80 80 81 80 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 93 98 96 93 105 101 111 106 116 122 105 83 200 MB DIV 105 115 104 96 92 119 111 93 90 136 86 99 38 700-850 TADV -9 -4 -1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 205 200 194 182 170 156 128 98 66 51 68 88 100 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.4 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.5 99.9 100.2 100.5 101.1 101.6 102.0 102.7 103.4 104.2 104.9 105.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 37 42 47 48 47 39 28 19 14 11 11 13 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 354 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 28. 36. 41. 43. 42. 42. 43. 43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 09/12/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 09/12/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##