* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 09/11/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 35 44 52 60 64 65 66 67 69 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 35 44 52 36 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 21 19 17 11 5 6 9 8 10 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 -4 -5 -3 -4 -4 -6 -4 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 48 36 37 48 75 57 88 126 122 129 137 132 142 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 156 156 157 157 156 156 157 157 157 157 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 86 88 88 88 87 86 85 86 84 85 84 85 87 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 86 96 90 89 101 97 107 106 112 112 125 114 200 MB DIV 94 91 103 106 126 140 112 97 96 96 138 127 140 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 -3 -5 -2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 285 256 234 193 153 67 0 -54 -118 -156 -190 -210 -221 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.4 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.0 96.4 96.6 96.8 96.9 96.8 96.8 96.9 97.2 97.8 98.5 99.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 22 25 28 30 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 32. 40. 44. 45. 46. 47. 49. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 09/11/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 09/11/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##