* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 08/03/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 42 46 47 44 39 35 29 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 42 46 47 44 39 35 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 29 29 29 26 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 3 6 9 11 6 7 11 16 21 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 2 3 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 343 346 314 272 308 321 314 252 253 251 250 251 246 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.1 27.0 26.2 25.0 24.5 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 149 148 145 140 135 134 125 113 108 107 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 74 74 74 73 71 72 72 75 70 65 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -26 -13 10 25 48 56 56 56 39 40 27 27 200 MB DIV 30 45 51 71 78 87 110 101 126 59 62 37 30 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -3 -5 -4 7 1 12 5 LAND (KM) 1607 1649 1694 1747 1801 1918 2044 2143 2236 2183 1997 1795 1621 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.9 15.8 16.9 17.9 18.9 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 121.3 122.1 122.9 123.7 124.5 126.4 128.4 130.4 132.4 134.3 135.9 137.7 139.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 9 8 15 4 4 1 10 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 17. 21. 22. 19. 14. 10. 4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 08/03/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 08/03/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##