* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 08/03/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 30 34 38 42 43 42 37 33 28 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 30 34 38 42 43 42 37 33 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 26 25 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 7 9 18 10 9 7 15 19 22 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 324 340 334 303 285 327 320 301 268 260 249 242 242 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.3 27.1 26.9 25.4 24.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 150 149 147 142 137 136 133 117 110 108 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.4 -53.3 -52.3 -52.8 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 66 70 74 74 75 74 76 75 75 77 70 64 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 13 12 12 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -28 -18 -3 15 44 55 53 61 54 48 50 48 200 MB DIV 20 43 39 27 56 78 87 95 124 78 77 57 44 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -5 -1 -5 -3 3 5 5 17 LAND (KM) 1555 1604 1649 1699 1751 1877 2002 2115 2223 2230 2007 1790 1580 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.3 16.2 17.3 18.4 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.3 122.1 122.9 123.7 125.6 127.6 129.6 131.8 134.0 135.9 137.8 139.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 12 11 9 12 8 5 4 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 18. 17. 12. 8. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 08/03/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 08/03/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##