* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 08/02/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 32 37 33 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 32 37 33 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 11 13 11 6 9 15 22 26 25 25 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -2 0 0 6 7 9 8 9 6 7 SHEAR DIR 257 265 290 311 326 310 271 254 258 249 250 248 254 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 138 136 134 130 125 121 118 115 116 117 119 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 52 51 53 53 51 52 46 47 44 44 41 43 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 9 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -3 1 14 11 18 -3 -6 -2 -9 -5 0 38 200 MB DIV 38 15 33 47 43 71 42 19 4 -7 6 -8 1 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 6 1 3 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1971 1858 1745 1634 1524 1314 1170 1057 989 948 928 893 864 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.6 14.5 15.4 16.0 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 138.2 139.3 140.4 141.4 142.4 144.1 145.1 145.8 146.2 146.4 146.6 147.0 147.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 8 6 4 3 1 1 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 13 17 18 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 7. 12. 8. 4. -1. -8. -13. -17. -19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 08/02/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912013 INVEST 08/02/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##