* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 08/02/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 29 31 34 34 31 27 22 18 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 26 29 31 34 34 31 27 22 18 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 24 23 23 22 22 20 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 13 8 9 15 19 14 15 11 22 25 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 1 0 0 0 -2 1 0 5 3 0 SHEAR DIR 326 323 327 338 317 317 330 341 306 289 260 257 251 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.8 26.5 24.9 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 152 152 150 148 144 138 132 130 113 105 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -53.2 -52.2 -52.7 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 65 67 69 73 74 74 74 73 70 72 71 70 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -41 -43 -27 -15 19 39 41 40 40 34 31 27 200 MB DIV 38 35 31 41 42 65 61 72 62 77 56 43 17 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -5 -4 1 10 7 LAND (KM) 1433 1486 1542 1597 1644 1732 1831 1928 2025 2113 2215 2087 1884 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.1 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.6 16.7 18.2 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.3 119.2 120.0 120.8 121.6 123.2 124.9 126.7 128.6 130.7 132.9 135.0 136.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 11 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 15 13 13 13 12 15 3 2 19 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 9. 9. 6. 2. -3. -7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 08/02/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 08/02/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##