* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 08/02/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 35 33 28 23 19 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 35 33 28 23 19 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 25 24 23 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 15 16 15 16 11 20 19 20 15 29 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 1 0 0 0 1 7 3 4 SHEAR DIR 329 332 332 333 343 333 320 322 332 309 276 267 253 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.6 27.0 26.5 25.3 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 152 152 151 149 147 140 135 130 117 106 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 64 66 67 69 72 73 75 73 72 68 70 67 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -33 -23 -9 -12 21 32 32 38 28 30 24 24 200 MB DIV 32 53 40 45 42 58 23 42 40 34 40 40 31 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 -5 -1 0 9 14 LAND (KM) 1383 1429 1478 1523 1570 1649 1719 1823 1935 2027 2136 2175 1937 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.6 15.4 16.5 17.9 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.3 119.1 119.9 120.6 122.1 123.6 125.3 127.3 129.4 131.8 134.2 136.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 15 14 13 13 12 14 5 16 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 8. 3. -2. -6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 08/02/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 08/02/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##