* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 08/02/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 25 27 30 28 26 22 18 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 25 27 30 28 26 22 18 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 23 23 22 21 19 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 6 4 10 6 6 11 12 16 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -4 -4 0 0 3 3 2 4 2 1 SHEAR DIR 238 231 247 254 261 301 341 252 267 253 252 259 253 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 141 139 137 133 130 127 124 122 119 120 120 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 52 54 55 52 53 54 52 49 48 49 47 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -11 -5 -7 -8 5 2 0 -7 -3 -3 27 26 200 MB DIV 26 25 29 6 -10 22 31 32 27 0 6 -1 0 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 -1 0 0 -1 0 2 1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 2166 2053 1941 1839 1738 1531 1348 1208 1096 1018 968 934 858 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.9 13.5 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.4 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 136.1 137.2 138.3 139.3 140.3 142.2 143.8 145.0 145.9 146.5 146.8 147.1 147.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 6 4 3 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 7 9 12 16 5 1 12 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 5. 3. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 08/02/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912013 INVEST 08/02/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##