* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 08/01/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 30 33 34 35 32 26 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 30 33 34 35 32 26 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 27 26 25 23 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 17 11 8 14 21 14 18 14 22 24 33 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 5 1 2 2 4 3 5 SHEAR DIR 319 325 345 343 315 323 316 298 298 294 294 263 267 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.5 26.6 25.7 24.4 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 151 151 152 149 145 139 130 121 108 97 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 61 59 62 63 64 68 71 71 69 68 64 63 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 4 3 1 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -5 -10 -10 -8 3 7 22 29 38 32 29 12 200 MB DIV 33 49 31 12 19 50 65 72 25 34 20 9 35 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 1 1 1 8 13 LAND (KM) 1265 1289 1322 1354 1390 1448 1491 1552 1612 1692 1774 1889 1978 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.3 16.1 16.9 17.9 19.2 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.1 117.1 117.9 118.7 120.2 121.7 123.2 124.7 126.5 128.6 131.0 133.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 11 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 20 18 19 17 8 14 2 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 7. 1. -5. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 08/01/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 08/01/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##