* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 08/01/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 34 36 39 41 41 43 46 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 34 36 39 41 41 43 46 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 32 32 33 33 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 13 17 18 20 22 18 15 13 8 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -8 -7 -6 -6 -4 0 1 1 1 2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 344 342 324 323 328 331 335 340 338 343 359 10 52 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 152 151 150 151 152 151 149 148 147 146 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 64 61 60 58 59 63 69 75 76 77 77 76 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -20 -23 -33 -40 -27 -30 -24 -9 1 1 -2 -12 200 MB DIV 4 -1 13 24 31 7 32 41 47 70 63 62 63 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1149 1211 1237 1269 1305 1383 1499 1616 1724 1851 1994 2151 2321 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 20 21 21 19 16 14 13 9 15 15 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 11. 14. 16. 16. 18. 21. 24. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 08/01/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 08/01/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##