* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 07/31/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 40 42 42 38 34 30 27 25 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 40 42 42 38 34 30 27 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 29 31 32 32 31 28 25 23 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 8 14 17 19 21 31 27 25 22 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 1 3 5 6 6 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 95 335 292 294 294 288 291 292 308 300 294 290 276 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.4 26.7 26.1 25.3 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 157 153 150 149 146 137 129 124 115 105 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.5 -53.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 66 66 66 64 62 62 64 62 61 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -24 -21 -20 -17 -14 -5 2 14 14 18 16 0 200 MB DIV 75 71 56 34 24 40 58 50 30 37 3 2 -17 700-850 TADV 4 2 4 6 4 4 4 3 3 1 4 0 4 LAND (KM) 939 984 1047 1113 1117 1160 1213 1253 1274 1326 1400 1465 1545 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.6 15.5 16.2 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.8 112.1 113.3 114.5 116.7 118.5 120.1 121.4 122.6 124.0 125.5 127.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 17 16 21 13 19 8 3 3 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 29. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 17. 17. 13. 9. 5. 2. 0. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 07/31/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 07/31/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##