* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/28/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 46 51 50 48 46 47 49 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 46 51 50 48 46 47 49 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 28 32 36 38 38 38 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 12 7 13 27 23 34 32 33 31 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 2 0 -1 0 1 -3 -7 -9 -7 1 SHEAR DIR 55 64 66 70 84 82 95 107 105 106 101 104 95 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.5 29.0 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 150 148 152 153 149 144 144 146 153 158 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -52.6 -53.5 -52.1 -53.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 59 61 57 54 47 44 49 50 49 48 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 1 9 21 34 43 38 29 22 -4 -1 -4 -9 200 MB DIV -8 8 46 69 99 109 73 16 19 11 -7 1 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 -5 -3 0 1 3 7 8 LAND (KM) 1331 1379 1429 1444 1460 1429 1304 1140 993 930 924 968 1051 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.2 11.1 12.3 13.4 13.5 13.2 12.3 11.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.2 113.8 114.3 114.5 114.6 114.3 113.6 112.7 111.9 111.2 110.8 110.3 109.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 2 0 3 6 7 5 3 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 14 14 14 14 16 26 26 34 38 57 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 26. 31. 30. 28. 26. 27. 29. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/28/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)