* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/27/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 25 32 39 47 50 47 43 41 40 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 25 32 39 47 50 47 43 41 40 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 29 32 35 37 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 11 12 12 5 11 12 28 24 28 30 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 -3 -5 -5 -1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 90 94 110 108 112 97 127 91 102 103 108 114 122 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 154 153 153 149 144 141 143 143 139 137 135 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 57 58 57 56 49 45 41 39 36 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 8 10 11 11 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 8 6 4 4 19 59 64 34 12 6 -2 3 200 MB DIV 11 12 3 12 23 78 88 56 34 7 -15 -33 -34 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 3 1 LAND (KM) 1125 1171 1220 1280 1343 1434 1496 1521 1472 1398 1299 1232 1176 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.0 10.9 11.3 11.9 12.8 13.5 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 112.0 112.7 113.5 114.3 115.7 116.6 116.9 116.7 116.4 116.2 116.2 116.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 6 3 0 3 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 52 34 23 17 13 12 14 16 15 14 15 18 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 5. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 19. 27. 30. 27. 23. 21. 20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/27/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)