* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/26/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 28 35 42 48 52 56 52 48 46 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 28 35 42 48 52 56 52 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 31 33 36 38 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 11 15 15 14 6 13 9 20 24 30 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -3 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 67 84 101 98 105 127 130 145 116 101 97 109 119 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 154 152 150 149 147 143 140 142 141 138 135 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.4 -52.6 -53.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 59 59 57 56 54 49 43 39 37 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 7 9 10 11 13 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 4 10 10 7 5 13 33 75 81 70 34 19 2 200 MB DIV 32 21 18 19 -3 28 75 81 77 58 4 4 -22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 3 3 0 2 LAND (KM) 989 1012 1039 1080 1126 1243 1326 1368 1402 1353 1264 1155 1061 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.0 12.0 11.8 12.2 12.9 13.8 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.0 110.7 111.5 112.2 113.8 115.1 116.0 116.3 116.1 115.7 115.3 115.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 7 5 3 0 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 60 67 55 40 31 19 14 16 16 16 16 19 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 8. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 36. 32. 28. 26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/26/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)