* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/25/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 28 39 50 61 69 72 73 71 71 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 24 28 39 50 61 69 72 73 71 71 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 31 36 41 45 49 52 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 8 9 9 12 19 21 13 17 20 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -7 -4 -4 -3 -3 -4 3 -4 0 -8 SHEAR DIR 14 2 46 69 71 84 80 92 69 104 86 79 71 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 161 160 156 154 153 151 149 148 147 144 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.0 -52.9 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 64 65 61 63 61 62 59 62 60 61 52 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 5 6 8 10 13 17 18 17 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -10 -7 -8 -1 16 18 26 38 63 75 73 67 200 MB DIV 75 70 58 52 43 37 34 40 76 88 25 58 36 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 1 LAND (KM) 929 938 950 980 1012 1070 1151 1242 1319 1360 1369 1270 1153 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 12.3 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.0 107.6 108.3 109.0 110.3 111.6 113.0 114.0 114.6 114.9 114.5 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 2 2 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 28 32 44 51 33 21 15 13 12 15 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 25. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 14. 19. 19. 18. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 8. 19. 30. 41. 49. 52. 53. 51. 51. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/25/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)