* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992013 09/05/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 49 54 55 55 54 55 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 49 54 55 55 54 55 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 39 42 45 47 48 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 7 7 6 6 7 4 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 -5 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 108 112 124 150 155 176 174 215 199 244 203 235 168 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.2 28.6 28.0 27.1 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 163 165 163 156 149 142 132 126 126 125 124 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 10 7 9 6 7 5 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 70 72 72 71 70 72 71 69 67 65 65 64 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 6 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 35 42 34 31 46 40 54 37 53 45 61 40 36 200 MB DIV 35 23 18 12 28 2 4 -17 18 6 33 18 26 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 280 263 259 259 262 294 145 82 103 93 70 46 6 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 8 8 6 5 4 2 1 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 38 32 20 12 12 7 3 2 2 1 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 24. 29. 30. 30. 29. 30. 30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992013 INVEST 09/05/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992013 INVEST 09/05/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##