* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992013 09/04/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 42 47 53 53 50 45 41 37 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 42 47 53 53 50 45 41 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 36 39 40 40 38 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 11 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 10 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -5 -3 -1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 100 136 153 156 157 160 155 159 166 188 196 203 201 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.4 28.8 27.9 26.7 25.5 24.6 23.9 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 163 164 164 159 153 143 130 117 107 99 92 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 9 9 7 5 4 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 73 75 75 75 76 72 70 69 63 60 55 51 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 22 20 27 56 62 56 70 57 43 35 16 18 20 200 MB DIV 13 22 18 39 21 13 15 8 17 -13 -6 -1 -14 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 212 222 221 226 256 355 337 332 381 413 467 542 552 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.9 19.9 20.8 21.7 22.4 22.9 23.2 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.1 105.6 106.3 107.0 108.7 110.5 112.3 113.9 115.4 116.4 117.4 118.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 30 35 33 9 2 4 11 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 28. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 22. 28. 28. 25. 20. 16. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992013 INVEST 09/04/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992013 INVEST 09/04/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##