* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992013 09/04/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 43 51 56 58 56 52 48 44 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 43 51 56 58 56 52 48 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 41 43 42 41 38 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 9 8 9 9 4 9 6 8 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 43 112 146 171 162 165 163 183 147 192 171 198 197 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.7 28.9 28.0 26.9 25.9 24.8 24.1 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 164 164 162 154 144 132 121 109 101 94 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 11 8 9 6 5 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 73 74 76 75 74 74 71 69 65 62 56 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 10 10 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 27 24 25 34 59 49 71 52 52 34 19 12 19 200 MB DIV 27 12 13 13 39 0 22 -1 18 3 -15 -16 -15 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 191 195 196 200 223 319 345 341 411 443 515 606 665 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.9 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.0 22.5 22.7 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.4 104.9 105.3 106.0 106.6 108.3 110.2 112.2 113.9 115.4 116.7 117.8 118.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 8 10 10 10 8 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 27 32 35 12 2 4 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 431 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 31. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 18. 26. 31. 33. 31. 27. 23. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992013 INVEST 09/04/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992013 INVEST 09/04/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##