* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992013 09/03/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 34 41 48 53 56 53 48 42 37 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 34 41 48 53 56 53 48 42 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 39 40 39 36 31 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 4 6 9 7 7 9 6 10 14 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 0 0 1 1 3 3 SHEAR DIR 349 23 124 137 166 164 180 192 220 200 214 210 215 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.2 29.2 28.2 26.6 24.8 23.5 22.7 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 162 163 164 167 157 147 130 110 96 87 82 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 9 10 9 7 5 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 75 75 77 76 74 69 69 66 61 59 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 6 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 25 33 31 34 40 69 63 57 46 29 28 4 11 200 MB DIV 22 36 22 21 18 13 14 7 0 4 -11 -16 -11 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 2 1 LAND (KM) 166 154 153 157 157 223 348 234 296 309 402 416 444 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.9 19.9 21.0 22.2 23.2 24.1 24.8 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 104.1 104.4 104.7 105.2 105.7 107.2 109.0 111.0 113.1 114.8 116.4 117.5 118.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 5 5 7 9 10 11 10 9 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 23 25 28 22 6 7 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 375 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 31. 31. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 16. 23. 28. 31. 28. 23. 17. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992013 INVEST 09/03/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992013 INVEST 09/03/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##