* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992013 09/03/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 35 46 54 62 64 63 58 53 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 35 46 54 62 64 63 58 53 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 37 40 43 42 39 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 2 6 7 9 8 9 12 15 18 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -4 -3 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 7 351 50 169 175 182 183 173 210 187 229 226 231 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.2 29.9 28.6 26.9 24.8 23.6 22.6 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 164 167 165 151 134 111 98 86 81 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 10 9 8 11 8 9 5 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 78 78 75 72 70 69 65 62 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 7 8 11 11 12 11 12 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 35 32 44 42 40 66 60 73 54 48 27 13 3 200 MB DIV 43 23 34 33 22 50 15 29 1 4 -2 0 -12 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 -6 -3 0 0 2 1 LAND (KM) 155 115 89 80 84 102 226 211 253 301 438 484 542 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.9 19.9 21.0 22.2 23.2 23.9 24.6 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.1 103.4 103.9 104.3 105.8 107.8 110.1 112.5 114.7 116.7 118.3 119.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 7 9 12 12 12 11 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 24 20 19 18 26 13 8 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 32. 31. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 10. 21. 29. 37. 39. 38. 33. 28. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992013 INVEST 09/03/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992013 INVEST 09/03/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##