* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992013 09/03/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 35 46 54 61 64 64 61 58 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 35 46 54 61 64 64 61 58 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 41 44 46 46 43 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 3 5 11 9 8 11 8 13 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 26 19 4 49 154 167 164 168 174 191 200 229 215 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.1 29.9 29.1 28.3 27.2 25.9 24.3 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 162 165 164 156 148 136 122 105 93 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 10 9 9 9 9 7 5 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 77 77 76 73 70 69 67 61 58 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 6 7 7 10 11 12 12 12 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 27 35 39 52 77 78 69 64 43 36 20 200 MB DIV 80 39 21 36 34 29 37 20 30 9 4 4 1 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 0 0 2 -1 -2 -3 0 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 223 194 185 177 181 191 288 380 338 441 488 606 678 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.5 20.3 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.6 104.1 104.6 105.0 106.2 107.8 109.6 111.7 113.9 115.8 117.7 119.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 7 9 10 11 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 34 29 26 24 25 29 17 5 6 12 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 33. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 10. 21. 29. 36. 39. 39. 36. 33. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992013 INVEST 09/03/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992013 INVEST 09/03/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##