* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992013 09/03/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 50 62 70 76 78 80 78 76 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 50 62 70 76 78 80 78 76 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 50 57 62 64 64 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 7 2 6 9 7 10 9 12 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -4 -6 -6 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 32 22 2 350 96 158 148 171 148 140 144 174 175 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 29.5 28.9 28.2 27.2 26.1 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 162 162 162 163 165 159 153 146 135 123 111 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 10 8 10 8 8 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 79 77 77 76 76 76 76 73 71 69 65 62 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 9 11 12 13 15 17 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 34 33 36 32 35 37 79 72 93 71 62 50 42 200 MB DIV 74 53 40 25 50 47 71 42 62 34 29 23 -10 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 231 217 197 192 192 206 250 348 379 361 434 452 504 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.5 20.3 21.1 21.8 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 102.4 103.0 103.6 104.2 104.7 105.7 107.0 108.5 110.3 112.1 113.8 115.3 116.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 44 35 31 28 27 30 27 12 4 4 13 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 386 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 34. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 16. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 25. 37. 45. 51. 53. 55. 54. 51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992013 INVEST 09/03/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992013 INVEST 09/03/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##