* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992013 09/02/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 39 44 54 64 72 78 79 80 77 73 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 39 44 54 64 72 78 79 80 77 73 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 36 42 49 55 62 68 71 67 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 9 7 7 3 9 9 8 10 10 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 0 1 -2 -5 -4 -3 -1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 38 28 33 354 336 165 178 182 197 174 215 187 207 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.2 29.8 28.6 26.5 24.1 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 162 162 162 164 167 163 151 129 104 90 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 7 6 3 1 700-500 MB RH 81 80 79 79 77 77 77 74 72 69 67 65 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 11 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 35 34 36 38 36 53 49 80 63 72 59 34 29 200 MB DIV 66 85 57 25 30 63 37 46 15 24 10 9 -10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 1 1 0 0 -3 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 232 202 173 154 122 40 34 62 198 123 176 230 343 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.8 18.6 19.4 20.5 21.8 22.9 24.0 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 101.0 101.5 101.9 102.3 102.6 103.2 104.2 105.7 107.6 109.8 112.2 114.4 116.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 5 6 7 9 11 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 51 51 42 34 27 17 13 24 15 12 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 379 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 11. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 19. 29. 39. 47. 53. 54. 55. 52. 48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992013 INVEST 09/02/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 63% is 4.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992013 INVEST 09/02/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##