* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992013 07/30/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 41 48 60 67 74 74 70 63 60 54 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 41 48 60 67 74 74 70 63 60 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 46 53 57 59 58 54 49 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 3 7 7 4 4 6 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 -3 -2 4 0 2 5 6 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 28 11 58 25 14 24 316 355 283 216 249 276 281 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.0 26.2 25.5 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 152 152 151 152 150 146 141 133 124 117 112 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -51.7 -52.5 -51.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 68 64 63 61 59 60 60 61 61 60 57 54 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 19 19 21 21 21 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -24 -30 -39 -45 -20 -24 -10 -14 -8 -17 -3 -5 200 MB DIV 60 62 76 70 51 55 23 18 32 46 -21 3 -13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 2 1 0 2 2 4 3 2 LAND (KM) 1283 1299 1325 1365 1411 1476 1521 1545 1585 1631 1658 1704 1791 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.7 14.2 15.0 15.8 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.4 116.5 117.5 118.5 120.1 121.5 122.8 124.1 125.4 126.6 127.9 129.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 23 23 21 23 14 14 7 13 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 12. 13. 12. 11. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 23. 35. 42. 49. 49. 45. 38. 35. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992013 INVEST 07/30/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 6.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992013 INVEST 07/30/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##