* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992013 07/30/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 33 40 53 64 73 76 74 70 68 63 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 33 40 53 64 73 76 74 70 68 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 31 37 42 46 48 48 46 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 7 4 8 8 6 4 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -6 -5 -6 -1 0 0 0 2 6 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 36 40 30 42 37 6 332 343 335 281 252 254 253 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.3 27.7 26.8 25.9 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 152 151 151 151 150 146 141 131 122 115 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 67 65 62 62 62 62 63 60 58 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 16 18 20 21 23 22 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -18 -28 -37 -43 -36 -22 -19 -10 -10 -4 -6 2 200 MB DIV 78 65 64 70 77 45 54 29 0 21 2 18 -1 700-850 TADV -2 -1 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 3 4 4 LAND (KM) 1230 1284 1334 1338 1350 1391 1438 1462 1477 1522 1577 1618 1715 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.5 13.1 13.8 14.5 15.3 16.1 17.1 17.9 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.7 114.8 115.7 116.6 118.2 119.7 121.0 122.2 123.6 125.1 126.6 128.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 15 15 20 24 21 27 14 11 8 9 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 14. 15. 17. 16. 16. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 20. 33. 44. 53. 56. 54. 50. 48. 43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992013 INVEST 07/30/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992013 INVEST 07/30/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##