* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992013 07/30/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 36 49 60 70 75 75 74 71 69 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 36 49 60 70 75 75 74 71 69 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 33 38 43 46 47 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 7 8 4 4 4 4 5 7 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -5 -6 -2 1 0 2 1 0 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 37 25 21 22 37 33 42 346 11 295 287 256 250 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.0 26.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 154 155 154 151 151 151 149 142 134 125 116 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.0 -52.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 71 72 70 69 69 66 62 64 63 63 64 61 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 13 15 18 20 21 22 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 -9 -22 -32 -44 -32 -23 -8 -7 0 -1 4 200 MB DIV 69 78 81 68 79 65 37 40 34 -13 28 12 -15 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 2 0 0 1 1 2 2 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 1132 1169 1219 1269 1297 1327 1376 1433 1466 1505 1582 1657 1770 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.8 13.5 14.2 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.6 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.6 112.8 113.9 114.9 116.7 118.5 120.1 121.7 123.2 124.9 126.8 128.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 33 22 15 17 22 22 24 10 12 12 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 8. 12. 14. 15. 17. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 29. 40. 50. 55. 55. 54. 51. 49. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992013 INVEST 07/30/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992013 INVEST 07/30/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##