* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982013 07/24/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 51 51 45 38 36 31 28 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 51 51 45 38 36 31 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 30 32 32 30 27 23 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 9 6 5 3 9 13 12 9 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 -4 -1 -3 2 -2 -1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 22 30 34 36 42 6 3 278 253 267 252 284 303 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.3 27.3 26.1 24.9 23.9 23.9 23.7 23.7 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 152 149 139 127 114 104 103 101 100 105 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 78 78 79 80 79 72 62 59 58 54 51 43 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 12 12 13 15 15 15 14 13 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 30 32 41 44 43 37 26 18 5 -5 -11 -16 -4 200 MB DIV 79 78 71 78 79 85 61 28 16 2 -7 -3 -26 700-850 TADV -9 -4 -6 -3 -2 -2 2 3 2 2 2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1408 1429 1462 1482 1504 1597 1703 1861 2060 1895 1603 1334 1079 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.2 14.8 16.2 17.6 19.1 20.3 21.2 22.0 22.3 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.7 119.8 120.9 122.0 124.6 127.4 130.6 133.6 136.7 139.6 142.3 144.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 15 16 16 16 15 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 24 15 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 5. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 26. 26. 20. 13. 11. 6. 3. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013 INVEST 07/24/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)