* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/26/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 51 53 55 54 51 44 39 33 30 27 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 51 53 55 54 51 44 39 33 30 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 45 46 46 43 39 36 33 30 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 2 2 2 5 4 7 6 9 14 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 1 3 0 -1 -2 -3 -6 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 326 36 289 275 358 227 166 232 292 275 299 302 298 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.5 25.4 25.4 25.0 24.9 25.2 25.6 25.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 137 136 131 120 118 114 113 116 120 121 123 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 69 70 66 67 65 64 62 60 57 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 19 20 19 19 19 18 16 15 13 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 27 38 36 34 38 30 20 -1 -23 -33 -29 -25 -31 200 MB DIV 103 115 106 100 107 41 27 -2 4 0 11 15 13 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 0 0 -1 2 2 3 2 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 1971 2070 2175 2283 2196 1801 1461 1194 953 693 423 218 59 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.4 18.4 17.8 17.9 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 128.2 129.7 131.2 132.8 134.4 138.1 141.2 143.6 145.8 148.3 151.2 153.6 155.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 16 17 17 13 11 11 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 1 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 13. 15. 14. 11. 4. -1. -7. -10. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/26/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/26/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##