* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982013 07/24/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 54 64 67 65 59 55 52 51 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 54 64 67 65 59 55 52 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 39 42 43 40 36 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 13 14 8 2 2 6 10 9 11 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -4 -4 -5 -1 0 0 4 -1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 33 34 28 34 34 24 59 250 217 265 273 247 273 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 27.8 26.9 25.9 24.8 24.1 24.5 24.4 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 152 151 143 135 125 113 106 109 108 107 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 79 79 81 80 81 74 71 64 64 56 54 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 12 12 13 15 16 16 16 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 31 31 35 41 41 38 32 15 15 11 19 13 9 200 MB DIV 74 73 61 72 69 82 86 62 33 19 32 16 6 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -4 -5 -5 -3 0 -1 1 -2 2 3 7 LAND (KM) 1361 1390 1428 1468 1493 1567 1689 1822 2029 2022 1685 1392 1120 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.3 15.4 16.6 17.8 18.8 19.3 19.7 19.8 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.8 117.9 119.0 120.1 121.2 123.5 126.1 129.1 132.3 135.5 138.7 141.5 144.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 13 15 16 16 15 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 26 23 12 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 23. 24. 24. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 9. 9. 11. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 29. 39. 42. 40. 34. 30. 27. 26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013 INVEST 07/24/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)