* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982013 07/22/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 29 39 47 56 64 66 67 63 59 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 29 39 47 56 64 66 67 63 59 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 32 37 41 43 43 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 12 12 8 7 10 9 7 4 4 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 2 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 19 20 21 15 46 79 38 38 19 16 313 258 255 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.2 27.0 25.7 24.5 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 149 150 151 151 152 148 136 123 111 104 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -52.5 -53.1 -52.4 -53.0 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 76 77 78 80 80 77 77 70 70 66 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 15 17 18 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 34 29 22 17 19 27 32 23 1 1 5 200 MB DIV 42 32 39 39 62 61 40 64 76 74 41 35 14 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -12 -6 -3 -3 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 986 1024 1064 1105 1157 1243 1276 1330 1396 1531 1688 1922 2050 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.6 13.4 14.4 15.5 16.8 18.2 19.4 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 109.1 110.2 111.3 112.4 114.6 116.8 118.9 121.3 124.3 127.8 131.5 135.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 14 17 18 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 28 30 27 27 21 21 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 33. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 9. 11. 14. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 19. 27. 36. 44. 46. 47. 43. 39. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013 INVEST 07/22/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)