* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982013 07/21/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 39 48 54 61 63 68 70 68 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 39 48 54 61 63 68 70 68 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 29 33 39 46 53 59 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 19 20 18 10 16 12 9 14 13 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 -4 -4 -2 -7 -4 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 32 39 44 41 32 66 49 56 45 25 44 31 4 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.2 27.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 150 151 151 150 150 149 151 152 147 136 128 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 81 78 78 80 80 76 76 73 72 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 8 8 8 7 9 8 9 10 13 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 26 29 33 32 29 23 21 14 26 32 30 27 -2 200 MB DIV 56 68 80 60 36 54 42 28 32 77 58 82 70 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -6 -7 -6 -5 -4 0 -6 -3 -6 -7 LAND (KM) 866 893 933 974 1022 1103 1227 1284 1328 1399 1485 1592 1736 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.6 12.1 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.7 15.7 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.1 107.1 108.2 109.3 111.4 113.6 115.5 117.5 119.4 121.6 124.1 127.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 31 33 30 34 27 25 20 22 12 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 34. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 15. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 28. 34. 41. 43. 48. 50. 48. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013 INVEST 07/21/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)