* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062012 07/18/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 25 23 23 23 16 18 18 17 14 10 6 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 1 4 5 7 2 9 2 9 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 237 249 237 229 223 223 192 194 192 202 211 224 N/A SST (C) 19.8 19.5 19.3 19.0 18.7 18.0 17.6 17.6 18.1 17.8 17.9 17.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 60 60 59 60 59 59 59 58 57 57 57 60 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -52.7 -52.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -52.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 34 28 29 26 25 28 31 31 31 37 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 7 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -1 0 -6 -13 -20 -9 1 17 27 35 24 N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -4 5 2 -1 -1 5 -4 9 -4 -8 13 N/A 700-850 TADV 12 6 -2 0 4 -2 -1 0 5 4 2 3 N/A LAND (KM) 668 620 580 526 477 379 248 178 100 139 125 156 N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.3 26.0 26.6 27.2 28.3 29.1 30.1 30.7 31.0 31.5 30.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.6 120.6 120.5 120.2 119.8 119.3 118.2 117.9 117.3 117.9 118.0 117.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 2 3 3 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -19. -22. -25. -28. -27. -26. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -10. -12. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -25. -41. -53. -65. -74. -79. -82. -83. -87. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062012 FABIO 07/18/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)