* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/08/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 34 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 38 34 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 38 35 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 3 7 7 6 9 12 5 11 6 10 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 3 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 12 40 129 110 108 125 155 148 167 161 164 195 185 SST (C) 25.2 24.5 23.7 22.9 22.0 20.4 19.9 20.0 20.0 19.7 19.2 19.0 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 115 107 99 91 81 64 60 59 59 59 59 59 59 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 68 67 67 64 67 65 62 57 52 42 34 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 14 5 10 20 16 3 -2 1 5 27 26 27 19 200 MB DIV 0 -4 22 35 27 22 0 -5 17 -8 0 -4 -1 700-850 TADV -14 -6 -10 -12 -13 -3 0 1 2 0 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 230 161 127 158 191 204 320 349 409 472 580 709 784 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.5 21.9 22.4 22.8 23.8 24.5 25.0 25.1 25.5 25.6 26.1 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.1 109.9 110.6 111.5 112.3 114.0 115.6 116.8 117.8 119.0 120.3 121.9 122.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 9 7 5 5 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -2. -4. -10. -16. -22. -28. -29. -30. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -16. -27. -39. -49. -57. -63. -67. -70. -73. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/08/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)