* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/04/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 43 41 39 38 31 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 43 41 39 38 31 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 46 43 41 39 37 35 33 30 27 23 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 13 18 11 18 18 17 13 13 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 0 -3 -1 0 0 0 4 1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 106 132 136 130 132 129 100 123 118 128 117 127 114 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.7 26.1 25.5 25.0 24.8 24.3 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 136 136 134 129 123 117 111 110 106 99 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 55 54 51 51 52 50 49 47 48 48 49 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 13 11 11 12 9 11 9 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 54 47 56 54 54 52 40 36 39 28 29 25 9 200 MB DIV 1 -15 -15 -5 5 17 22 2 -3 -8 5 5 -14 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 -4 0 -1 1 -1 3 -5 LAND (KM) 442 487 532 576 619 633 676 737 805 870 936 1044 1207 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.4 18.7 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.2 109.6 110.1 110.6 111.6 113.0 114.4 115.7 117.0 118.2 120.0 122.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 6 6 7 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 1 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -19. -20. -26. -31. -36. -41. -43. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/04/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)