* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022013 05/30/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 23 22 22 24 26 30 33 34 34 39 44 V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 29 29 32 33 37 32 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 25 23 22 21 21 21 25 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 5 5 10 21 14 10 14 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 1 3 -3 0 -2 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 352 38 108 201 234 232 253 255 250 198 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 140 139 138 134 133 132 133 145 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 11 10 12 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 64 59 62 63 55 60 63 66 65 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 85 89 98 101 73 74 64 88 88 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 50 32 43 42 12 38 40 58 50 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 7 2 0 1 -2 -6 0 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -72 -22 27 63 84 109 96 60 -52 -214 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.1 18.3 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.9 94.0 94.0 94.2 94.3 94.8 95.2 95.6 96.6 98.4 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 3 4 2 2 4 7 9 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 8 4 5 6 5 4 3 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -7. -12. -15. -18. -19. -19. -17. -14. -13. -13. -10. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. 0. 3. 4. 4. 9. 14. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022013 BARBARA 05/30/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -35.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)