* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 05/15/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 43 53 64 76 80 83 77 69 62 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 43 53 64 76 80 83 77 69 62 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 41 45 52 61 71 77 74 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 10 5 5 4 5 3 7 9 6 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 2 1 -2 0 0 -1 -5 0 9 16 16 SHEAR DIR 327 317 309 294 306 322 152 110 122 134 223 284 256 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 162 161 160 160 158 156 153 151 146 140 134 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 73 71 71 71 68 66 69 68 66 61 61 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 13 15 17 18 21 19 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -4 -5 -5 -9 -10 -10 -10 -3 5 -3 0 2 200 MB DIV 93 74 47 43 49 70 100 119 66 81 70 62 66 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 -2 1 0 0 0 5 2 5 LAND (KM) 1019 1048 1077 1095 1104 1137 1157 1184 1209 1241 1262 1215 1102 LAT (DEG N) 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.5 8.7 9.1 9.7 10.3 11.0 11.8 12.5 13.4 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 102.3 103.4 104.5 105.5 106.4 108.0 109.4 110.8 112.2 113.5 114.8 115.7 115.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 37 49 54 43 36 38 37 25 16 8 8 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 31. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -4. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 14. 14. 18. 16. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 23. 34. 46. 50. 53. 47. 39. 32. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 05/15/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)